Tag Archives: Ben Bernanke

UK Inflation Falls and Takes Pound With it

As expected this morning UK inflation figures fell, even lower than what the markets had been expecting. UK Consumer Price Index fell to 2.4%, down from 2.8% the previous month and below market expectations of 2.6%. UK Core Consumer price index was also down 40 basis points to 2.0%, recording a figure below market expectations of 2.3%. UK Producer Price Index and UK PPI Core Output were also down at 1.1% and 0.8% respectively.

In what was a rather busy morning in terms of UK data releases, nearly every piece of economic data released concerning the UK economy was negative. As would be expected Sterling fell right across the board following these inflation figures’ release. GBP/EUR fell to a daily low of 1.1777 however remained within the approximate 1.5 cent range that the pair has been trading within for the last month. Similarly Cable fell to a daily low of 1.5163, continuing the pairs decline since early May with a further test of the 1.5157 level now likely and should this break the next area of substantial support being found at 1.5127.

Much earlier this morning we saw the Japanese Yen return to its depreciating ways following Japanese Economy Minister Akira Amari’s much more coy response regarding the potential end to the Yen’s slide against the Dollar. This comes after the Yen strengthened yesterday following the economy minister’s comment that suggested further weakening of the Yen may adversely impact upon Japanese people. The bank of Japan’s record monetary stimulus program would now appear to be having the desired effect that Japanese finance ministers had initially hoped it would. Figures released in Tokyo last week showed that Japanese GDP rose to an annualized 3.5%, suggesting that the Bank of Japan’s efforts to end a decade of inflation are actually having a positive impact on the economy. This increase in money supply has had the inevitable, yet “unintentional”, effect of depreciating the Yen, which rose to above USD/JPY 100.00 two weeks ago for the first time in over four years, and has consequently lead to a boost in exports. Data released so far suggests that BoJ Governor Haruhik Kuroda may actually be able to reach his ambitious target of reaching 2.0% inflation in just two years. USD/JPY is currently trading at 102.68 and speculation will now grow as to whether the pair will reach 105.00.

With very little data due out this afternoon, trader’s attention is likely to turn to tomorrow where we will see a number of key releases. In the early hours of tomorrow morning the Bank of Japan is set to make their interest rate decision and monetary policy statement, potentially giving the market an indication of how long their extremely loose monetary policy will continue. Moving back westwards, later tomorrow morning UK BoE minutes will be released, followed by the US FOMC minutes tomorrow evening. As Sir Mervyn King comes to the end of his tenure as governor of the BoE, it is unlikely that we will see any drastic information released in the BoE minutes, however the market will be keen to see if the FOMC minutes or Fed Governor Ben Bernanke’s press conference give any indication as to when a reduction in the Federal Reserve’s bond buying program will be brought to an end.

Federal Reserve & US Dollar

Ben Bernanke, Chairman of the Federal Reserve has indicated that there will be no immediate monetary stimulus but that the Federal Reserve will consider the use of all its monetary tools at their next meeting in September.

“The Federal Reserve has a range of tools that could be used to provide additional monetary stimulus. We discussed the relative merits and costs of such tools at our August meeting. We will continue to consider those and other pertinent issues, including of course economic and financial developments, at our meeting in September, which has been scheduled for two days (20th-21st September) instead of one to allow a fuller discussion. The Committee will continue to assess the economic outlook in light of incoming information and is prepared to employ its tools as appropriate to promote a stronger economic recovery in a context of price stability.” Ben Bernanke, Chairman Federal Reserve.

Currently the Pound trades lower against the US Dollar at 1.6230.

Currency Update

The US Dollar remains under pressure as gold soars past $1,130 an ounce. EURUSD climbed as high as 1.4993 and has now settled around 1.4970. The Pound has also had a good day against the US Dollar hitting an interbank high of 1.6780 so far. The markets will now be eyeing Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s speech due later today at 17:15.

Over the weekend GDP figures released from Japan smashed market expectations posting third quarter growth at 4.8%. Of course this can largely be attributed to the massive government stimulus package so it is unlikely that these levels of growth will be sustainable.

Sterling will face a number of tests this week as the Bank of England’s Quantitative Easing Programme will take the limelight again. UK inflation data is due tomorrow (17/11) morning at 09:30 whilst the Bank of England Minutes from November’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting will be released at 09:30 on Wednesday 18th November.