Currency Update

Positive UK data released this morning fuelled a moderate rally in the Pound, albeit a very short lived one. UK Markit Services PMI showed a substantial rise to 51.5 in January and caused Cable to spike upwards immediately following the release before dropping back off to where it is now, trading flat for the day at 1.5750. Similarly GBP/EUR rose slightly following the UK PMI figures, however the pair has now weakened and Sterling’s decline has seemingly resumed, with the pair now trading at 1.1630.

The Euro has strengthened against both the Pound and the Dollar this morning following the release of PMI figures. Whilst UK PMI data showed a positive increase, Markit Services PMI results for Spain, Germany and the Euro Zone were also positive. However, this data was soon contradicted by EU Retail Sales figures which showed sales were down -3.4% in December. As market participants digest the figures, it would appear that they have not yet decided that Sterling is oversold or the Euro has appreciated too far. However, one must recall the comments made several weeks ago by Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker, who stated that the Euro is ‘dangerously high’ – if that observation was correct then, the Euro must now be in an extremely precarious situation.

Elsewhere this morning we saw the Reserve Bank of Australia commit to keeping interest rates at 3.0%. The Aussie Dollar dropped off against Sterling and the Greenback following the data release as RBA Governor Glenn Stevens gave an explicit indication that rates could well go lower in the future. Despite these comments, the outlook for the Australian economy would appear to be consistently improving as China’s rebounding growth continues to be confirmed. This morning the HSBC China Services PMI hit 54.0, up from 51.7 the previous month. GBPAUD currently trades at 1.5140.