UK Economy Emerges from Recession

Christmas came early this morning for the UK as GDP figures confirmed, somewhat emphatically, that the UK has officially come out of recession. David Cameron declared yesterday during a lively Prime Minister Questions, at the end of a passionate statement regarding the strengthening UK economy to opposition leader Ed Milliband, that ‘the good news will keep coming’. Despite this statement, even the Prime Minister himself must have been pleasantly surprised this morning when the data was officially released, confirming a UK GDP Q3 increase of 1%, beating market expectations of 0.6%. This positive sentiment was conveyed in the markets as GBP/EUR jumped 35 pips in the ten minutes following the release. A large part of this increase is likely to be due to the effect the Olympics had on the economy as Olympic Games ticket sales helped revive growth. These results, whilst positive, should be considered with cautious optimism. Bank of England Governor Mervyn King commented yesterday that whilst the UK economy continues to recover, it is proceeding to do so at a ‘slow and uncertain’ pace. All of this means that the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee will have a lot to think about when they meet on the 8th November to decide the UK’s monetary policy.

The economic data this morning from the UK contrasts drastically to the consistently negative information that was released yesterday morning in Europe. Between eight and nine AM yesterday nearly ten pieces of individual European economic data was released with each one being negative and failing to meet market expectations. This quite clearly hit the Euro as we saw nearly one cent fall off both EUR/GBP and EUR/USD following the data release. European leaders offered little help for the Euro either, as has come to be expected, following European Central Bank President Mario Draghi’s meeting with German lawmakers. Truth be told little was expected to come from this meeting which was more of a wooing campaign for Mr Draghi who is keen to gain the support of the German public to ensure the countries commitment to the ECB’s bond buying program which is hoped will help sure up the Eurozone.

Mark Webster
25/10/12