EU Summit 18-19th October

EU leaders will meet today for a two-day summit over plans for a single supervision mechanism and banking union and the wider issues surrounding the Eurozone crisis. In the days leading up to the summit the Euro has appreciated in a climate of calmer European stock markets and lower borrowing costs for Greece and Spain. There has also been a significant effort from Germany to argue for greater European economic and fiscal integration. EURUSD currently trades at 1.31 and EURGBP is currently trading above 0.81p (1.23). GBPUSD has also tracked EURUSD higher and trades above 1.61 on the interbank market.

Despite the relative increase in positive sentiment surrounding the Euro, it must be remembered that the summit is being held against a very dark backdrop. Greece today is braced for its twentieth general strike in two years and Spanish premier Rajoy continues to drag his feet on Spain’s bailout request. Any bailout request is now anticipated in November after the Galician and Basque parliamentary elections held on October 21st. Whilst it should be noted Catalonian parliamentary elections are due to be held on November 25th. Full Catalonian independence is unlikely to happen soon, if at all, but any Catalan struggle for greater autonomy would damage confidence, at a time when Spain needs to reassure the bond markets and fellow EU members , that the central Spanish government has its problems in hand.

No formal announcements are expected on Greece or Spain but any leaked comments could cause volatility in the Euro.

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10:00 18.10.12